2024 Forecast

From orthopedic implants to surgical instruments and equipment, forecasts show the market should expand at 6.2% through 2032.

PHOTO © onephoto | ADOBE STOCK

Demographics aren’t changing. Key drivers in the medical device manufacturing sector consist of the demand from adults aged 65 and older. OK Boomer! Additionally, you can add age-related disorders such as diabetes, neurology, hypertension, and osteoarthritis combined with chronic disease and toss in the rising costs of healthcare. Altogether that sets up the global medical devices market size, valued at $597.4 billion in 2023, to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.2% through 2032 to reach $ $1.025 trillion by 2032.

When winnowing down to just the U.S. market, Fortune Business Insights suggests the U.S. medical devices market was $192.78 billion in 2023 and will grow to $291.04 billion by 2030, a CAGR of 6.1%.

Supporting growth in U.S. medtech is an outlook from Cleveland Research Company as Jim Rutan, president, ARCH Medical Solutions covered during the AMT – The Association For Manufacturing Technology Fall event, where he noted 2023 orthopedic procedure volumes are coming in better than expected, showing 7% to 8% growth in 2023, and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) can expect growth through 2024. In addition to this growth is the shift in where procedures take place. In 2017, 5% of knee replacements took place in ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs), by 2021 that was up to 15%, and the forecast leans to that increasing to 30% by 2025.

Further indicating these moves toward ASCs were topics of discussion at the recent J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. Sutter Health, located in Sacramento, California, plans to open 25 ambulatory care centers within the next 3 years, as they have seen year-over-year volume growth for outpatient surgeries of 5.9%.

Yet this growth can come with some challenges. Beyond OEMs needing to be prepared for increasing orders, a study by the American Academy of Orthopedic Surgeons (AAOS) found surgeons will need to double their total joint arthroplasty (TJA) caseload or increase the number of surgeons by 10% every 5 years because of this growing demand.

The population-based study used national data from the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) and Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) to determine the number of TJAs and active orthopedic surgeons from 2010 to 2020. To determine growth trends, researchers used arthroplasty-to-surgeon ratios (ASRs) and an arthroplasty surgeon growth indicator (ASGI). The ASR values estimate the average annual output of total hip arthroplasty (THA), total knee arthroplasty (TKA), or TJA procedures performed by an orthopedic surgeon in a given year. ASGI values were calculated using the 2017 ASR values as the standard point of comparison.

Results show:

  • Annual volume of primary TJAs will grow 70% to 2,257,326
  • Higher growth in demand for THAs compared to TKAs (1,219,852 THAs vs. 1,037,474 TKAs by 2050)
  • Active orthopedic surgeons is projected to decrease 14% by 2050
  • In 2017, the average primary TJA caseload per active orthopedic surgeon was 65.2 procedures while the projected TJA-ASRs for 2050 is 139.4. The number of TJAs performed per surgeon will double by 2050 to meet the projected demand
  • Increasing the number of orthopedic surgeons by 10% every five years could ensure the caseload per surgeon remains similar to the 2010 to 2017 numbers

Additionally, as we enter 2024, AdvaMed President and CEO Scott Whitaker called on the Biden Administration to ensure the medtech industry is considered as it implements policies to strengthen domestic supply chains, recommending:

  • Immediate, long-term prioritization of medtech needs in programs such as CHIPS to ensure enough critical components – in addition to semiconductor chips, circuit boards, monitors, resins, polymers, medical grade packaging, helium in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) machines, and the materials needed for sterilization – among industries competing for supplies.
  • Supporting greater diversification of supply chains to reduce barriers to the flow of goods, with public-private partnerships to enhance resiliency and agility and reduce over-reliance for any aspect of manufacturing or supply. The new U.S. Department of Commerce Supply Chain Center and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, including the United States and 13 regional partner nations, are among key initiatives for this work.

Further areas of growth moving forward will be artificial intelligence (AI) and data interoperability, which form the basis for effective digital health strategies, supporting the shift toward value-based care – the best, cost-effective health outcomes for patients.

These indicators for increased orthopedic surgeries, growing ASCs, and embracing digital health will have machine tool builders seeing more demand for high-efficiency equipment as job shops and contract manufacturers produce more implants, bone screws, plates, and the surgical tools required to complete each procedure. Automation will continue its growth in manufacturing as lack of skilled workers remains a challenge but the reshoring of medtech manufacturing will demand more efficient operations.

About the author: Elizabeth Engler Modic is editorial director for GIE Media’s Manufacturing Group of magazines and can be reached at 216.303.0264 or emodic@gie.net.

January/Februrary 2024
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